A multidimensional classifier to support lung transplant referral in patients with pulmonary fibrosis.

BACKGROUND: Lung transplantation remains the sole curative option for patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF), but donor organs remain scarce, and many eligible patients die before transplant. Tools to optimize the timing of transplant referrals are urgently needed. METHODS: Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator was applied to clinical and proteomic data generated as part of a prospective cohort study of interstitial lung disease (ILD) to derive clinical, proteomic, and multidimensional logit models of near-term death or lung transplant within 18 months of blood draw. Model-fitted values were dichotomized at the point of maximal sensitivity and specificity, and decision curve analysis was used to select the best-performing classifier. We then applied this classifier to independent IPF and non-IPF ILD cohorts to determine test performance characteristics. Cohorts were restricted to patients aged ≤72 years with body mass index 18 to 32 to increase the likelihood of transplant eligibility. RESULTS: IPF derivation, IPF validation, and non-IPF ILD validation cohorts consisted of 314, 105, and 295 patients, respectively. A multidimensional model comprising 2 clinical variables and 20 proteins outperformed stand-alone clinical and proteomic models. Following dichotomization, the multidimensional classifier predicted near-term outcome with 70% sensitivity and 92% specificity in the IPF validation cohort and 70% sensitivity and 80% specificity in the non-IPF ILD validation cohort. CONCLUSIONS: A multidimensional classifier of near-term outcomes accurately discriminated this end-point with good test performance across independent IPF and non-IPF ILD cohorts. These findings support refinement and prospective validation of this classifier in transplant-eligible individuals.

Cooperation between PRMT1 and PRMT6 drives lung cancer health disparities among Black/African American men.

Lung cancer is the third most common cancer with Black/AA men showing higher risk and poorer outcomes than NHW men. Lung cancer disparities are multifactorial, driven by tobacco exposure, inequities in care access, upstream health determinants, and molecular determinants including biological and genetic factors. Elevated expressions of protein arginine methyltransferases (PRMTs) correlating with poorer prognosis have been observed in many cancers. Most importantly, our study shows that PRMT6 displays higher expression in lung cancer tissues of Black/AA men compared to NHW men. In this study, we investigated the underlying mechanism of PRMT6 and its cooperation with PRMT1 to form a heteromer as a driver of lung cancer. Disrupting PRMT1/PRMT6 heteromer by a competitive peptide reduced proliferation in non-small cell lung cancer cell lines and patient-derived organoids, therefore, giving rise to a more strategic approach in the treatment of Black/AA men with lung cancer and to eliminate cancer health disparities.

Association study of human leukocyte antigen variants and idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.

Introduction: Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a chronic interstitial pneumonia marked by progressive lung fibrosis and a poor prognosis. Recent studies have highlighted the potential role of infection in the pathogenesis of IPF, and a prior association of the HLA-DQB1 gene with idiopathic fibrotic interstitial pneumonia (including IPF) has been reported. Owing to the important role that the human leukocyte antigen (HLA) region plays in the immune response, here we evaluated if HLA genetic variation was associated specifically with IPF risk. Methods: We performed a meta-analysis of associations of the HLA region with IPF risk in individuals of European ancestry from seven independent case-control studies of IPF (comprising 5159 cases and 27 459 controls, including a prior study of fibrotic interstitial pneumonia). Single nucleotide polymorphisms, classical HLA alleles and amino acids were analysed and signals meeting a region-wide association threshold of p<4.5×10-4 and a posterior probability of replication >90% were considered significant. We sought to replicate the previously reported HLA-DQB1 association in the subset of studies independent of the original report. Results: The meta-analysis of all seven studies identified four significant independent single nucleotide polymorphisms associated with IPF risk. However, none met the posterior probability for replication criterion. The HLA-DQB1 association was not replicated in the independent IPF studies. Conclusion: Variation in the HLA region was not consistently associated with risk in studies of IPF. However, this does not preclude the possibility that other genomic regions linked to the immune response may be involved in the aetiology of IPF.

Machine Learning of Plasma Proteomics Classifies Diagnosis of Interstitial Lung Disease.

RATIONALE: Distinguishing connective tissue disease associated interstitial lung disease (CTD-ILD) from idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) can be clinically challenging. OBJECTIVES: Identify proteins that separate and classify CTD-ILD from IPF patients. METHODS: Four registries with 1247 IPF and 352 CTD-ILD patients were included in analyses. Plasma samples were subjected to high-throughput proteomics assays. Protein features were prioritized using Recursive Feature Elimination (RFE) to construct a proteomic classifier. Multiple machine learning models, including Support Vector Machine, LASSO regression, Random Forest (RF), and imbalanced-RF, were trained and tested in independent cohorts. The validated models were used to classify each case iteratively in external datasets. MEASUREMENT AND MAIN RESULTS: A classifier with 37 proteins (PC37) was enriched in biological process of bronchiole development and smooth muscle proliferation, and immune responses. Four machine learning models used PC37 with sex and age score to generate continuous classification values. Receiver-operating-characteristic curve analyses of these scores demonstrated consistent Area-Under-Curve 0.85-0.90 in test cohort, and 0.94-0.96 in the single-sample dataset. Binary classification demonstrated 78.6%-80.4% sensitivity and 76%-84.4% specificity in test cohort, 93.5%-96.1% sensitivity and 69.5%-77.6% specificity in single-sample classification dataset. Composite analysis of all machine learning models confirmed 78.2% (194/248) accuracy in test cohort and 82.9% (208/251) in single-sample classification dataset. CONCLUSIONS: Multiple machine learning models trained with large cohort proteomic datasets consistently distinguished CTD-ILD from IPF. Identified proteins involved in immune pathways. We further developed a novel approach for single sample classification, which could facilitate honing the differential diagnosis of ILD in challenging cases and improve clinical decision-making.

Genome-wide SNP-sex interaction analysis of susceptibility to idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.

Background: Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a chronic lung condition that is more prevalent in males than females. The reasons for this are not fully understood, with differing environmental exposures due to historically sex-biased occupations, or diagnostic bias, being possible explanations. To date, over 20 independent genetic variants have been identified to be associated with IPF susceptibility, but these have been discovered when combining males and females. Our aim was to test for the presence of sex-specific associations with IPF susceptibility and assess whether there is a need to consider sex-specific effects when evaluating genetic risk in clinical prediction models for IPF. Methods: We performed genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP)-by-sex interaction studies of IPF risk in six independent IPF case-control studies and combined them using inverse-variance weighted fixed effect meta-analysis. In total, 4,561 cases (1,280 females and 2,281 males) and 23,500 controls (8,360 females and 14,528 males) of European genetic ancestry were analysed. We used polygenic risk scores (PRS) to assess differences in genetic risk prediction between males and females. Findings: Three independent genetic association signals were identified. All showed a consistent direction of effect across all individual IPF studies and an opposite direction of effect in IPF susceptibility between females and males. None had been previously identified in IPF susceptibility genome-wide association studies (GWAS). The predictive accuracy of the PRSs were similar between males and females, regardless of whether using combined or sex-specific GWAS results. Interpretation: We prioritised three genetic variants whose effect on IPF risk may be modified by sex, however these require further study. We found no evidence that the predictive accuracy of common SNP-based PRSs varies significantly between males and females.

Commensal Oral Microbiota, Disease Severity and Mortality in Fibrotic Lung Disease.

RATIONALE: Oral microbiota associate with diseases of the mouth and serve as a source of lung microbiota. However, the role of oral microbiota in lung disease is unknown. OBJECTIVES: To determine associations between oral microbiota and disease severity and death in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis. METHODS: We analyzed 16S rRNA gene and shotgun metagenomic sequencing data of buccal swabs from 511 patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis in the multicenter CleanUP-IPF trial. Buccal swabs were collected from usual care, and antimicrobial cohorts. Microbiome data was correlated with measures of disease severity using principal component analysis and linear regression models. Associations between the buccal microbiome and mortality were determined using Cox additive models, Kaplan Meier analysis and Cox proportional hazards models. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Greater buccal microbial diversity associated with lower forced vital capacity (FVC) at baseline [mean diff -3.60: 95% CI -5.92 to -1.29 percent predicted FVC per 1 unit increment]. The buccal proportion of Streptococcus correlated positively with FVC [mean diff 0.80: 95% CI 0.16-1.43 percent predicted per 10% increase] (n=490). Greater microbial diversity was associated with an increased risk of death [HR 1.73: 95% CI 1.03-2.90] while a greater proportion of Streptococcus was associated with a reduced risk of death [HR 0.85: 95% CI 0.73 to 0.99]. The Streptococcus genus was mainly comprised of Streptococcus mitis species. CONCLUSIONS: Increasing buccal microbial diversity predicts disease severity and death in IPF. The oral commensal Streptococcus mitis spp associates with preserved lung function and improved survival.

Associations of Plasma Omega-3 Fatty Acids With Progression and Survival in Pulmonary Fibrosis.

BACKGROUND: Preclinical experiments suggest protective effects of omega-3 fatty acids and their metabolites in lung injury and fibrosis. Whether higher intake of omega-3 fatty acids is associated with disease progression and survival in humans with pulmonary fibrosis is unknown. RESEARCH QUESTION: What are the associations of plasma omega-3 fatty acid levels (a validated marker of omega-3 nutritional intake) with disease progression and transplant-free survival in pulmonary fibrosis? STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: Omega-3 fatty acid levels were measured from plasma samples of patients with clinically diagnosed pulmonary fibrosis from the Pulmonary Fibrosis Foundation Patient Registry (n = 150), University of Virginia (n = 58), and University of Chicago (n = 101) cohorts. The N-3 index (docosahexaenoic acid + eicosapentaenoic acid) was the primary exposure variable of interest. Linear-mixed effects models with random intercept and slope were used to examine associations of plasma omega-3 fatty acid levels with changes in FVC and diffusing capacity for carbon monoxide over a period of 12 months. Cox proportional hazards models were used to examine transplant-free survival. Stratified analyses by telomere length were performed in the University of Chicago cohort. RESULTS: Most of the cohort were patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (88%) and male patients (74%). One-unit increment in log-transformed N-3 index plasma level was associated with a change in diffusing capacity for carbon monoxide of 1.43 mL/min/mm Hg per 12 months (95% CI, 0.46-2.41) and a hazard ratio for transplant-free survival of 0.44 (95% CI, 0.24-0.83). Cardiovascular disease history, smoking, and antifibrotic usage did not significantly modify associations. Omega-3 fatty acid levels were not significantly associated with changes in FVC. Higher eicosapentaenoic acid plasma levels were associated with longer transplant-free survival among University of Chicago participants with shorter telomere length (P value for interaction = .02). INTERPRETATION: Further research is needed to investigate underlying biological mechanisms and whether omega-3 fatty acids are a potential disease-modifying therapy.

Proteomic Biomarkers of Survival in Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis.

RATIONALE: Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) causes progressive lung scarring and high mortality. Reliable and accurate prognostic biomarkers are urgently needed. OBJECTIVE: To identify and validate circulating protein biomarkers of IPF survival. METHODS: High-throughput proteomic data were generated using prospectively collected plasma samples from patients with IPF from the Pulmonary Fibrosis Foundation Patient Registry (discovery cohort) and the Universities of California-Davis, Chicago, and Virginia (validation cohort). Proteins associated with three-year transplant-free survival (TFS) were identified using multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression. Those associated with TFS after adjustment for false discovery in the discovery cohort were advanced for testing in the validation cohort, with proteins maintaining TFS association with consistent effect direction considered validated. After combining cohorts, functional analyses were performed, and machine learning used to derive a proteomic signature of TFS. MAIN RESULTS: Of 2921 proteins tested in the discovery cohort (n=871), 231 were associated with differential TFS. Of these, 140 maintained TFS association with consistent effect direction in the validation cohort (n=355). After combining cohorts, validated proteins with strongest TFS association were latent-transforming growth factor beta-binding protein 2 (HR 2.43, 95% CI 2.09-2.82), collagen alpha-1(XXIV) chain (HR 2.21; 95% CI 1.86-2.39) and keratin 19 (HR 1.60; 95% CI 1.47-1.74). In decision curve analysis, a proteomic signature of TFS outperformed a similarly derived clinical prediction model. CONCLUSIONS: In largest proteomic investigation of IPF outcomes performed to date, we identified and validated 140 protein biomarkers of TFS. These results shed important light on potential drivers of IPF progression.

Telomere length and immunosuppression in non-idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis interstitial lung disease.

BACKGROUND: Studies suggest a harmful pharmacogenomic interaction exists between short leukocyte telomere length (LTL) and immunosuppressants in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). It remains unknown if a similar interaction exists in non-IPF interstitial lung disease (ILD). METHODS: A retrospective, multicentre cohort analysis was performed in fibrotic hypersensitivity pneumonitis (fHP), unclassifiable ILD (uILD) and connective tissue disease (CTD)-ILD patients from five centres. LTL was measured by quantitative PCR for discovery and replication cohorts and expressed as age-adjusted percentiles of normal. Inverse probability of treatment weights based on propensity scores were used to assess the association between mycophenolate or azathioprine exposure and age-adjusted LTL on 2-year transplant-free survival using weighted Cox proportional hazards regression incorporating time-dependent immunosuppressant exposure. RESULTS: The discovery and replication cohorts included 613 and 325 patients, respectively. In total, 40% of patients were exposed to immunosuppression and 22% had LTL <10th percentile of normal. fHP and uILD patients with LTL <10th percentile experienced reduced survival when exposed to either mycophenolate or azathioprine in the discovery cohort (mortality hazard ratio (HR) 4.97, 95% CI 2.26-10.92; p<0.001) and replication cohort (mortality HR 4.90, 95% CI 1.74-13.77; p=0.003). Immunosuppressant exposure was not associated with differential survival in patients with LTL ≥10th percentile. There was a significant interaction between LTL <10th percentile and immunosuppressant exposure (discovery pinteraction=0.013; replication pinteraction=0.011). Low event rate and prevalence of LTL <10th percentile precluded subgroup analyses for CTD-ILD. CONCLUSION: Similar to IPF, fHP and uILD patients with age-adjusted LTL <10th percentile may experience reduced survival when exposed to immunosuppression.

Telomere length associates with chronological age and mortality across racially diverse pulmonary fibrosis cohorts.

Pulmonary fibrosis (PF) is characterized by profound scarring and poor survival. We investigated the association of leukocyte telomere length (LTL) with chronological age and mortality across racially diverse PF cohorts. LTL measurements among participants with PF stratified by race/ethnicity were assessed in relation to age and all-cause mortality, and compared to controls. Generalized linear models were used to evaluate the age-LTL relationship, Cox proportional hazards models were used for hazard ratio estimation, and the Cochran-Armitage test was used to assess quartiles of LTL. Standardized LTL shortened with increasing chronological age; this association in controls was strengthened in PF (R = -0.28; P < 0.0001). In PF, age- and sex-adjusted LTL below the median consistently predicted worse mortality across all racial groups (White, HR = 2.21, 95% CI = 1.79-2.72; Black, HR = 2.22, 95% CI = 1.05-4.66; Hispanic, HR = 3.40, 95% CI = 1.88-6.14; and Asian, HR = 2.11, 95% CI = 0.55-8.23). LTL associates uniformly with chronological age and is a biomarker predictive of mortality in PF across racial groups.

Central lung gene expression associates with myofibroblast features in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.

RATIONALE: Contribution of central lung tissues to pathogenesis of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) remains unknown. OBJECTIVE: To ascertain the relationship between cell types of IPF-central and IPF-peripheral lung explants using RNA sequencing (RNA-seq) transcriptome. METHODS: Biopsies of paired IPF-central and IPF-peripheral along with non-IPF lungs were selected by reviewing H&E data. Criteria for differentially expressed genes (DEG) were set at false discovery rate <5% and fold change >2. Computational cell composition deconvolution was performed. Signature scores were computed for each cell type. FINDINGS: Comparison of central IPF versus non-IPF identified 1723 DEG (1522 upregulated and 201 downregulated). Sixty-two per cent (938/1522) of the mutually upregulated genes in central IPF genes were also upregulated in peripheral IPF versus non-IPF. Moreover, 85 IPF central-associated genes (CAG) were upregulated in central IPF versus both peripheral IPF and central non-IPF. IPF single-cell RNA-seq analysis revealed the highest CAG signature score in myofibroblasts and significantly correlated with a previously published activated fibroblasts signature (r=0.88, p=1.6×10-4). CAG signature scores were significantly higher in IPF than in non-IPF myofibroblasts (p=0.013). Network analysis of central-IPF genes identified a module significantly correlated with the deconvoluted proportion of myofibroblasts in central IPF and anti-correlated with inflammation foci trait in peripheral IPF. The module genes were over-represented in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis signalling pathways. INTERPRETATION: Gene expression in central IPF lung regions demonstrates active myofibroblast features that contributes to disease progression. Further elucidation of pathological transcriptomic state of cells in the central regions of the IPF lung that are relatively spared from morphological rearrangements may provide insights into molecular changes in the IPF progression.

PCSK6 and Survival in Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis.

Rationale: Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a devastating disease characterized by limited treatment options and high mortality. A better understanding of the molecular drivers of IPF progression is needed. Objectives: To identify and validate molecular determinants of IPF survival. Methods: A staged genome-wide association study was performed using paired genomic and survival data. Stage I cases were drawn from centers across the United States and Europe and stage II cases from Vanderbilt University. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to identify gene variants associated with differential transplantation-free survival (TFS). Stage I variants with nominal significance (P < 5 × 10-5) were advanced for stage II testing and meta-analyzed to identify those reaching genome-wide significance (P < 5 × 10-8). Downstream analyses were performed for genes and proteins associated with variants reaching genome-wide significance. Measurements and Main Results: After quality controls, 1,481 stage I cases and 397 stage II cases were included in the analysis. After filtering, 9,075,629 variants were tested in stage I, with 158 meeting advancement criteria. Four variants associated with TFS with consistent effect direction were identified in stage II, including one in an intron of PCSK6 (proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 6) reaching genome-wide significance (hazard ratio, 4.11 [95% confidence interval, 2.54-6.67]; P = 9.45 × 10-9). PCSK6 protein was highly expressed in IPF lung parenchyma. PCSK6 lung staining intensity, peripheral blood gene expression, and plasma concentration were associated with reduced TFS. Conclusions: We identified four novel variants associated with IPF survival, including one in PCSK6 that reached genome-wide significance. Downstream analyses suggested that PCSK6 protein plays a potentially important role in IPF progression.

Cluster analysis of transcriptomic datasets to identify endotypes of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.

BACKGROUND: Considerable clinical heterogeneity in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) suggests the existence of multiple disease endotypes. Identifying these endotypes would improve our understanding of the pathogenesis of IPF and could allow for a biomarker-driven personalised medicine approach. We aimed to identify clinically distinct groups of patients with IPF that could represent distinct disease endotypes. METHODS: We co-normalised, pooled and clustered three publicly available blood transcriptomic datasets (total 220 IPF cases). We compared clinical traits across clusters and used gene enrichment analysis to identify biological pathways and processes that were over-represented among the genes that were differentially expressed across clusters. A gene-based classifier was developed and validated using three additional independent datasets (total 194 IPF cases). FINDINGS: We identified three clusters of patients with IPF with statistically significant differences in lung function (p=0.009) and mortality (p=0.009) between groups. Gene enrichment analysis implicated mitochondrial homeostasis, apoptosis, cell cycle and innate and adaptive immunity in the pathogenesis underlying these groups. We developed and validated a 13-gene cluster classifier that predicted mortality in IPF (high-risk clusters vs low-risk cluster: HR 4.25, 95% CI 2.14 to 8.46, p=3.7×10-5). INTERPRETATION: We have identified blood gene expression signatures capable of discerning groups of patients with IPF with significant differences in survival. These clusters could be representative of distinct pathophysiological states, which would support the theory of multiple endotypes of IPF. Although more work must be done to confirm the existence of these endotypes, our classifier could be a useful tool in patient stratification and outcome prediction in IPF.

Longitudinal lung function and gas transfer in individuals with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis: a genome-wide association study.

BACKGROUND: Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is an incurable lung disease characterised by progressive scarring leading to alveolar stiffness, reduced lung capacity, and impeded gas transfer. We aimed to identify genetic variants associated with declining lung capacity or declining gas transfer after diagnosis of IPF. METHODS: We did a genome-wide meta-analysis of longitudinal measures of forced vital capacity (FVC) and diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide (DLCO) in individuals diagnosed with IPF. Individuals were recruited to three studies between June, 1996, and August, 2017, from across centres in the US, UK, and Spain. Suggestively significant variants were investigated further in an additional independent study (CleanUP-IPF). All four studies diagnosed cases following American Thoracic Society/European Respiratory Society guidelines. Variants were defined as significantly associated if they had a meta-analysis p<5 × 10-8 when meta-analysing across all discovery and follow-up studies, had consistent direction of effects across all four studies, and were nominally significant (p<0·05) in each study. FINDINGS: 1329 individuals with a total of 5216 measures were included in the FVC analysis. 975 individuals with a total of 3361 measures were included in the DLCO analysis. For the discovery genome-wide analyses, 7 611 174 genetic variants were included in the FVC analysis and 7 536 843 in the DLCO analysis. One variant (rs115982800) located in an antisense RNA gene for protein kinase N2 (PKN2) showed a genome-wide significant association with FVC decline (-140 mL/year per risk allele [95% CI -180 to -100]; p=9·14 × 10-12). INTERPRETATION: Our analysis identifies a genetic variant associated with disease progression, which might highlight a new biological mechanism for IPF. We found that PKN2, a Rho and Rac effector protein, is the most likely gene of interest from this analysis. PKN2 inhibitors are currently in development and signify a potential novel therapeutic approach for IPF. FUNDING: Action for Pulmonary Fibrosis, Medical Research Council, Wellcome Trust, and National Institutes of Health National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute.

High-dimensional comparison of monocytes and T cells in post-COVID and idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.

Introduction: Up to 30% of hospitalized COVID-19 patients experience persistent sequelae, including pulmonary fibrosis (PF). Methods: We examined COVID-19 survivors with impaired lung function and imaging worrisome for developing PF and found within six months, symptoms, restriction and PF improved in some (Early-Resolving COVID-PF), but persisted in others (Late-Resolving COVID-PF). To evaluate immune mechanisms associated with recovery versus persistent PF, we performed single-cell RNA-sequencing and multiplex immunostaining on peripheral blood mononuclear cells from patients with Early- and Late-Resolving COVID-PF and compared them to age-matched controls without respiratory disease. Results and discussion: Our analysis showed circulating monocytes were significantly reduced in Late-Resolving COVID-PF patients compared to Early-Resolving COVID-PF and non-diseased controls. Monocyte abundance correlated with pulmonary function forced vital capacity and diffusion capacity. Differential expression analysis revealed MHC-II class molecules were upregulated on the CD8 T cells of Late-Resolving COVID-PF patients but downregulated in monocytes. To determine whether these immune signatures resembled other interstitial lung diseases, we analyzed samples from Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis (IPF) patients. IPF patients had a similar marked decrease in monocyte HLA-DR protein expression compared to Late-Resolving COVID-PF patients. Our findings indicate decreased circulating monocytes are associated with decreased lung function and uniquely distinguish Late-Resolving COVID-PF from Early-Resolving COVID-PF, IPF, and non-diseased controls.

50-gene risk profiles in peripheral blood predict COVID-19 outcomes: A retrospective, multicenter cohort study.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 has been associated with Interstitial Lung Disease features. The immune transcriptomic overlap between Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis (IPF) and COVID-19 has not been investigated. METHODS: we analyzed blood transcript levels of 50 genes known to predict IPF mortality in three COVID-19 and two IPF cohorts. The Scoring Algorithm of Molecular Subphenotypes (SAMS) was applied to distinguish high versus low-risk profiles in all cohorts. SAMS cutoffs derived from the COVID-19 Discovery cohort were used to predict intensive care unit (ICU) status, need for mechanical ventilation, and in-hospital mortality in the COVID-19 Validation cohort. A COVID-19 Single-cell RNA-sequencing cohort was used to identify the cellular sources of the 50-gene risk profiles. The same COVID-19 SAMS cutoffs were used to predict mortality in the IPF cohorts. FINDINGS: 50-gene risk profiles discriminated severe from mild COVID-19 in the Discovery cohort (P = 0·015) and predicted ICU admission, need for mechanical ventilation, and in-hospital mortality (AUC: 0·77, 0·75, and 0·74, respectively, P < 0·001) in the COVID-19 Validation cohort. In COVID-19, 50-gene expressing cells with a high-risk profile included monocytes, dendritic cells, and neutrophils, while low-risk profile-expressing cells included CD4+, CD8+ T lymphocytes, IgG producing plasmablasts, B cells, NK, and gamma/delta T cells. Same COVID-19 SAMS cutoffs were also predictive of mortality in the University of Chicago (HR:5·26, 95%CI:1·81-15·27, P = 0·0013) and Imperial College of London (HR:4·31, 95%CI:1·81-10·23, P = 0·0016) IPF cohorts. INTERPRETATION: 50-gene risk profiles in peripheral blood predict COVID-19 and IPF outcomes. The cellular sources of these gene expression changes suggest common innate and adaptive immune responses in both diseases. FUNDING: This work was supported in part by National Institute for Health Research Clinician Scientist Fellowship NIHR: CS-2013-13-017 (TMM); Action for Pulmonary Fibrosis Mike Bray fellowship (PLM); The National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI) through award K01-HL-130704 (AJ); The University of South Florida (USF) Academic Support Fund and the USF Foundation, Ubben Fibrosis Fund (JHM).

Antibody-mediated depletion of CCR10+EphA3+ cells ameliorates fibrosis in IPF.

Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is characterized by aberrant repair that diminishes lung function via mechanisms that remain poorly understood. CC chemokine receptor (CCR10) and its ligand CCL28 were both elevated in IPF compared with normal donors. CCR10 was highly expressed by various cells from IPF lungs, most notably stage-specific embryonic antigen-4-positive mesenchymal progenitor cells (MPCs). In vitro, CCL28 promoted the proliferation of CCR10+ MPCs while CRISPR/Cas9-mediated targeting of CCR10 resulted in the death of MPCs. Following the intravenous injection of various cells from IPF lungs into immunodeficient (NOD/SCID-γ, NSG) mice, human CCR10+ cells initiated and maintained fibrosis in NSG mice. Eph receptor A3 (EphA3) was among the highest expressed receptor tyrosine kinases detected on IPF CCR10+ cells. Ifabotuzumab-targeted killing of EphA3+ cells significantly reduced the numbers of CCR10+ cells and ameliorated pulmonary fibrosis in humanized NSG mice. Thus, human CCR10+ cells promote pulmonary fibrosis, and EphA3 mAb-directed elimination of these cells inhibits lung fibrosis.

Blood Transcriptomics Predicts Progression of Pulmonary Fibrosis and Associated Natural Killer Cells.

Rationale: Disease activity in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) remains highly variable, poorly understood, and difficult to predict. Objectives: To identify a predictor using short-term longitudinal changes in gene expression that forecasts future FVC decline and to characterize involved pathways and cell types. Methods: Seventy-four patients from COMET (Correlating Outcomes with Biochemical Markers to Estimate Time-Progression in IPF) cohort were dichotomized as progressors (≥10% FVC decline) or stable. Blood gene-expression changes within individuals were calculated between baseline and 4 months and regressed with future FVC status, allowing determination of expression variations, sample size, and statistical power. Pathway analyses were conducted to predict downstream effects and identify new targets. An FVC predictor for progression was constructed in COMET and validated using independent cohorts. Peripheral blood mononuclear single-cell RNA-sequencing data from healthy control subjects were used as references to characterize cell type compositions from bulk peripheral blood mononuclear RNA-sequencing data that were associated with FVC decline. Measurements and Main Results: The longitudinal model reduced gene-expression variations within stable and progressor groups, resulting in increased statistical power when compared with a cross-sectional model. The FVC predictor for progression anticipated patients with future FVC decline with 78% sensitivity and 86% specificity across independent IPF cohorts. Pattern recognition receptor pathways and mTOR pathways were downregulated and upregulated, respectively. Cellular deconvolution using single-cell RNA-sequencing data identified natural killer cells as significantly correlated with progression. Conclusions: Serial transcriptomic change predicts future FVC decline. An analysis of cell types involved in the progressor signature supports the novel involvement of natural killer cells in IPF progression.

MicroRNA and protein-coding gene expression analysis in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis yields novel biomarker signatures associated to survival.

Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a chronic, progressive interstitial lung disease of unknown etiology that poses significant challenges in early diagnosis and prediction of progression. Analyses of microRNA and gene expression in IPF have yielded potentially predictive information. However, the relationship between microRNA/gene expression and quantitative phenotypic value in IPF remains controversial, as is the added value of this approach to current molecular signatures in IPF. To identify biomarkers predictive of survival in IPF via a microRNA-driven strategy. We profiled microRNA and protein-coding gene expression in peripheral blood mononuclear cells from 70 IPF subjects in a discovery cohort. We linked the microRNA/gene expression level with the quantitative phenotypic variation in IPF, including diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide and the forced vital capacity percent predicted. In silico analyses of expression profiles and quantitative phenotypic data allowed the generation of 2 sets of IPF molecular signatures (unique for microRNAs and protein-coding genes) that predict IPF survival. Each signature performed well in a validation cohort comprised of IPF patients aggregated from distinct patient populations recruited from different sites. Resampling test suggests that the protein-coding gene based signature is comparable and potentially superior to published IPF prognostic gene signatures. In conclusion, these results highlight the utility of microRNA-driven peripheral blood molecular signatures as valuable and novel biomarkers associated to individuals at high survival risk and for potentially facilitating individualized therapies in this enigmatic disorder.